Iraqi operation at verge of downfal

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From: newsdesk_aps_nl at apsf.aps.nl (newsdesk at aps.nl)
Subject: Iraqi operation at verge of downfall


Subject: Iraqi operation at verge of downfall > Debate/Imset

Turkey's week-long incursion into northern Iraq appears to have failed
to meet expectations, putting pressure on Ankara and the military to
justify their further presence in the region. The operation was
launched by Ankara last weekend in violation of international laws and
with no obvious reason for "hot persuit." PM Ciller's government failed
to consult with Parliament on the issue, depending on authority granted
to the administration during the Gulf War. The said authority was
granted in protest of Ciller's own party, the DYP, and her coalition
partner SHP.

Although Ankara aimed at justifying the attack in the eyes of its
Western allies by claiming it targeted to crush the PKK, there is
growing concern that civilians are suffering more than the rebels.
Turkey "revised" its initial PKK casualty toll this week from 200 to 14
and later increased it to 182. It was notable, though, that it did not
display the body for journalists as was traditional. In fact, as
foreign media concern on the plight of civilians grew, Turkey blocked
all access to Turkish and foreign reporters to the region.

On Tuesday, Reuters quoted Turkish military officers saying that the
PKK militants had escaped from their bases into the rugged border
region where tracing them down would be very difficult if not
completely impossible. Iraqi Kurds said the PKK had left its camps two
weeks prior to the incursion and left behind only a token force which
35,000 Turkish troops seem to have difficulty in dealing with.

The high cost of the operation, the coverage of the issue by a military
manipulated media, and promises made by government and military to
crush the PKK "once and for all" now make it even more difficult for an
early withdrawal to take place. Both the military and government have
to consider Turkish public opinion alongside western pressure. They are
bound to try to justify this uncalled for incursion in the eyes of the
electorate and this in itself could lead to an extensive stay.

The only bodies of people killed by Turkish troops to be seen by third
parties have been those of two civilians. Another nine were also
reportedly wounded when troops conducted house-to-house searches in
Kurdish villages. Turkey's own human rights record is riddled by such
searches which often end, in its own territory, with the torching of
houses and a complete depopulation of the settlements. Yet, in view of
western concern, the architect of immense human rights violations in
the southeast, Gen. Hasan Kundakci, appears to be more careful in Iraq.
Kundakci has been branded a supreme commander by the motivated press
which reports "destruction of PKK camps" on a daily basis without
offering any new casualties.

As of Tuesday, several major Turkish newspapers have instructed their
staff to look into the background of the incursion, reflecting their
own inconfidence that it aims the PKK alone. Some newspapers have also
contacted the PKK, asking for direct channels to be open so as Turkish
information can be re-checked.

At the verge of its entry to the EU, Turkey has once again proven its
major qualification: That to shoot itself in its foot. Not only has it
turned the international spotlights on its poor human rights, but it
also has alienated many of its prominent allies -- a major source of
investment. Despite its claims of "independence" and the traditional
Turkish argument that western powers have interests which conflict with
Turkish sovereignty, much of Ankara's ruthless campaign against the
Kurds depends on foreign military aid and grants. Although there is no
evidence that german weapons are currently being used for the
cross-border operation, it is unlikely that such an incursion against
international laws could be carried out without US support and weapons.

The disillusion that the Kurds do not exist and that the PKK is not a
product of the Kurdish crisis but only a foreign-supported terrorist
group has forced Turkey to deny the most principle rights to its
Kurdish population. PKK atrocities, in the form of attacks against
civilians and unarmed government employees, have been systematically
used by Turkish forces as smoke screens to cover up their own
atrocities, i.e. opening fire on mass demonstrations, torching 1,500
villages, displacing 2 million civilians and attacking villages, towns
and cities. Thus many Turks, acting under the assumption that the
national press is reporting the truth, are inclined to end the crisis
through military means -- replying to guns with guns. This policy,
instigated by the ANAP government in the late 1980s, is the policy
responsible for the death of over 15,000 people in the past decade.

Turks in general believe in the existence of a sinister foreign plot to
divide the country and base their argument on the assumption that
giving principle rights to the Kurds will be the first step towards
such a division. This view has for years been carefully instilled in
every house by a systematic propaganda effort carried out by the
National Security Council which --on paper-- only has advisory powers.
The council, as in the case of state security courts, is a remnant of
the 1980 military coup era and stands as evidence that Turkey does not
belong to the democratic league.

As for the current status of the Ankara government, a rubber stamp
management for the military as far as the Kurdish issue goes, it is
caught now in between western fire and the downfall of expectations in
Iraq. Turkey continues to ignore the fact that the Kurdish problem and
the PKK problem is WITHIN its territory and not ABROAD. But how could
it not be ignored, given its record of "successes" against the PKK? At
the end of 1994, 40,000 troops were moved into Tunceli province where,
from the free time they had from torching villages and conducting mass
arrests of civilians (sometimes bumping off muhtars) they tried to
eradicate the PKK. 40,000 troops challenged 1,000 PKK militants for
four months on the Tunceli mountains and the operation ended with
zilch. This was INSIDE Turkish territory! Now the terrain is different,
the area is regarded as "enemy soil" and 35,000 troops, conventional
troops, are chasing 2,000 militants, unconventional guerillas.

Scenario: It appears the PKK has ordered for a temporary halt of all
military activities and is waiting the current crisis out. The possible
scenario on the PKK front could be to allow the Turks to settle in the
area. There are reports in Turkey's own press that instead of fighting
it off on the border mountains, Turkish troops are actually moving into
the summer resort palaces of former Iraqi leaders and just settling
them.  Once the settlement comes to an end, the PKK may then attempt to
launch a Vietnam-style harrassment campaign, harrassing troups with
sporadic attacks, mining, ambushes and sabotage. Being a guerilla
movement, it has a hardened staff in the mountains and much expertise
in this field. Turkey's own SAT commandoes, often wearing caps with
skulls inscribed in the front, are equally or even better trained but
lack the experience. Moreover, as part of military expenditure cuts,
Turkey last year brought down the number of live ammunition which could
be used in commando training -- producing a less experienced force. The
PKK has taken to the hills as Turkish officers have said but has also
melted among the people. Restrictions on HR thus make it difficult to
differentiate --once again-- the innocent from the guilty. Moreover,
despite Turkey's own backward laws, the operation is conducted in the
territory of another country and thus CANNOT target any PKK
"sympathizers" as the act of sympathizing is not a crime for the more
developed world. The operation must target PKK activists, as the UNHCR
has expressed and that too is almost impossible. The result of this
operation may thus be an extensive war between the two sides if Turkey
extends its stay in the region and such a conflict will undoubtedly
spill in time to other regional Kurdish groups and lead to a
destabilization which the world cannot afford. The only face-saving
move I can see for the government, now entrapped in its own mistake, is
to move out of the region as soon as possible, at the cost of blaming
foreign pressure -- which is, after all, a routine incident for many
Turkish minds. Otherwise, the downfall of operation north Iraq could
soon lead to the downfall of Government Ciller. (Not a bad idea at
that). A second argument is that even if 2,000 PKK guerillas were
killed in this operation, it would neither change the current state of
the overall Kurdish crisis nor seriously effect PKK activities within
Turkey. In fact, the operation will soon reflect itself as an increase
of economic hardships in Turkey (with its high cost) and boomerang back
in the form of further social turmoil.

Imset